A direct US-Iran conflict would likely trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, which presents a double-edged sword for Nigeria. While higher crude prices could theoretically boost our foreign exchange earnings, the reality is that our reliance on imported refined petroleum products means we would immediately face higher landing costs and even more severe fuel scarcity. Given our current fiscal constraints and the ongoing transition in the downstream sector, it is fair to be concerned that the government may lack the buffer needed to cushion citizens from an inflationary shock. We are unfortunately stuck in a vulnerable position where our inability to refine our own oil prevents us from fully capitalizing on these market spikes, often leaving the average Nigerian to pay the price for global instability. Ultimately, the government seems largely reactive rather than proactive, and without robust local refining capacity, we will remain trapped in the crossfire of these foreign power struggles.